Traditional Oil Mining Innovations – Hunting for Elephants: Finding Oil and Gas Reserves to 2050 While many expect oil and natural gas to retain their role in the energy mix in 2050, the more important question is not just how much oil and gas will be needed, but should to be in the next period as well. where will the world find him.
Namibia is home to the latest herd of “elephant” fields, where about 11 billion barrels of oil were found off its coast last year.
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The oil and gas industry is at an important stage in the evolving global energy environment. As the world increasingly focuses on combating climate change and embracing renewable energy sources, conventional fossil fuel exploration is facing unprecedented challenges. The energy transition is now a clear reality and is reshaping the foundations of the oil and gas sector.
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But just like the predictions of the impending end of King Fossil’s reign at the top of the energy pyramid, in 2050 the old king will still be hanging on. This whole argument gives renewable energy and fossil energy advocates a good bone to gnaw on.
In September, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), wrote in the Financial Times that it is taboo to predict that demand for fossil fuels will decline permanently. He predicted that the relentless growth of fossil fuels will slow by 2030, according to new projections to be published by the IEA in this month’s World Energy Outlook.
OPEC criticized the announcement, describing the narrative as “highly dangerous and impractical for abandoning fossil fuels or suggesting that their end is just around the corner.” The group of oil-producing countries said the IEA’s view on fossil fuels was more ideological than factual and that such forecasts were “dangerous” because they were often accompanied by calls to halt investment in new oil and gas projects.
The IEA and OPEC have reached little common ground, agreeing that demand for oil and gas will remain in 2050 and that investment in new oil and gas projects must continue.
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Underinvestment in the development of upstream assets has been a concern for several years, with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating the problem, and according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, oil and gas activity will decline by 7% from 2014 to 2021. The investment bank expects primary energy capital spending to grow 48% to $1.9 trillion by 2027, from $1.3 trillion in 2022.
“We believe the energy industry has been disinvesting since its peak in 2014, with investment in conventional energy (oil and gas) down 50% from its peak in 2020 and global primary energy investment down 18% from 1.3 trillion USD. In 2014, it will be $1.0 trillion in 2020,” the bank said.
“Since 2014, many oil and gas investment decisions have been delayed, resulting in 10 million barrels of lost oil production by 2024-25, equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s annual output – and 3 million BOED of lost LNG production, more than Qatar . , in our estimation,” says Goldman Sachs.
Despite these concerns, it is possible to meet oil and gas demand in the 2030s without significantly increasing the current annual investment level of US$500 billion, according to a recent Horizons report by Wood Mackenzie.
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Current procurement costs are “almost half of the 2014 peak (in 2023) of $914 billion,” the energy consultancy wrote. This apparent shortage has fueled a widespread belief that the industry is underinvested and that a supply crunch is inevitable sooner or later.
“We believe investment around current levels is likely to increase the supply needed to meet demand at peak levels and beyond,” said Fraser McKay, lead author of the report and head of Edinburgh-based energy consultancy Upstream Analysis. “There are three main reasons: exploitation of vast resources of cheap oil, relentless capital discipline and transformational improvements in investment efficiency.”
Wood Mackenzie predicts that oil demand will surpass pre-pandemic peaks in 2023. From 2024, oil demand growth will slow and reach 108 million barrels in early 2030.
“In 2023, the typical cost of developing new production areas has decreased by 60%, from 16.1 USD/BOE in 2014 to 6.5 USD/BOE in 2023, to only 4.7 USD/BOE in 2020,” McKay said, adding that “U.S. oil production wells are producing nearly three times as much per unit of capital as in 2014. New technologies, capital efficiency and modularization have had a strong impact.
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According to McKay, most of the industry’s investment in oil and gas by the end of this decade will be focused on the most profitable sources: those with the lowest costs, lowest emissions and lowest risk.
“Non-OPEC supply growth continues to be dominated by the lower 48 index in the US, which is now maturing and complemented by large development plays in deepwater Latin America (Brazil, Guyana, Suriname) and Namibia heading for a plateau,” McKay said. “OPEC plans to add 3 million barrels per day, mainly for Middle East expansion projects in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.”
He added that the growth potential of these core, existing and priority capacities will be exhausted after this decade, and the development of new supply will be more expensive.
“To meet demand, the industry will increasingly depend on older sources of supply, expensive new development and delayed inventory growth due to undiscovered volumes,” he said.
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According to Rystad Energy, the offshore industry accounted for about 95 percent of year-to-date exploration spending, but only two-thirds of the volumes discovered.
The going has been slower for offshore seismic companies over the past few years as a tough oil and gas market forced explorers to wait for better conditions in the sector.
According to Rystad Energy, the wait is coming to an end as spending on conventional oil and gas exploration returns. The Oslo-based energy consultancy expects spending to top $50 billion in 2023, the highest since 2019.
Wood Mackenzie also sees exploration spending continuing to recover from historic declines to an average of $22 billion per year over the next 5 years. He cited the need for energy security and the emergence of new frontiers as an incentive for oil and gas companies led by national oil companies and majors to increase exploration spending.
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“Researchers will be bolder in the coming years. While this rebound may surprise some, it must be viewed in context. Between 2006 and 2014, exploration boomed and spending peaked at US$79 billion (in 2023). But over the past 6 years, it has averaged $27 billion a year in 2023,” said Julie Wilson, director of global research at Wood Mackenzie.
“While consumption has increased, it will not return to past levels and there may be a ceiling to growth. There are no high-quality prospects that match today’s economic and ESG metrics, and a continued focus on capital discipline will prevent overspending,” he said.
David Hajovsky, TGS’s executive vice president for the Western Hemisphere, sees the current search environment as one of recovery.
“If you go back a few years, the predictions were quite negative. What we’re seeing now is that the investment community and some companies are realizing that they have to take inventory and find new fields because the depletion rate in our current fields — if you have 8 or 10% per year — year — in the 2040s and 2050s for meeting the demand for oil and gas requires large reserves,” he said.
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But this growth can be difficult to manage because it depends in part on government regulations. For example, in the US, the last 5-year federal Outer Continental Shelf land lease program, which ran from mid-2017 to mid-2022, ended in June 2022. The proposed 2023-2028 program, released in July 2022 US Bureau of Ocean Management, not yet completed or implemented.
“It is important to know that we have some leases that we are evaluating and developing. Hopefully one day they will become something that we will put on the market,” said Rich Howe, Shell’s executive vice president of deepwater.
“But at a certain point you go through that inventory, and if there’s nothing else to fill the funnel behind, you’ve got a problem. Continued investment depends on continued leases and building a future energy system.
He added that Shell strongly supports the leasing trade as an important way to expand the supply of safe and low-carbon barrels in the US Gulf of Mexico.
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“This is very important. As an energy expert and an American, I can say that this is very important. We encourage the current administration to continue with overseas leasing and develop a 5-year plan to see what happens on the runway and capital selection. We can deploy our resources in a sustainable and predictable way,” Howe said.
Stocking the shelves with new inventory keeps the project moving along the assembly line, but Howe cautioned
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